Tesla dealerships are getting protested and, in some cases, vandalized. Sales are down on 9 of the top 10 countries Tesla sells in. Yet Tesla stock is up. Twitter is a cesspool of nazi-themed bots, and somehow just pulled in $1bn and raised its valuation back up to $44bn.
How is any of this possible? It seems really artificial to me, but I don’t really understand business.
When highly profitable companies are valued less than companies like Tesla just confirms that in the stockmarket the rules are made up, and the points don’t matter
That’s what we call the dead-cat bounce. The further and faster a stock price falls, the more people think it will go back up and buy in at the new low price, thus at some point there is a short-lived reversal of the decline before it continues as it was. Although much of Tesla’s value recently was from a big jump in November (getting a fancy new oval-shaped office will do that for you), so this is likely as much a correction of that overreaction as it is some protest of or loss of faith in Musk.
Although much of Tesla’s value recently was from a big jump in November (getting a fancy new oval-shaped office will do that for you)
I don’t think many people realize just how big a jump this was.
Yeah, the price nearly doubled. But then it all came crumbling down again. I doubt it will go much below where it was before for long, but I could be wrong.
The value of a private company is a number that can be pulled from their ass, right?
Before: there was an idiot that wanted to pay $54.20 for each of the 800 million publicly traded shares = 44 billion valuation even if the yearly earnings after all expenses (EBITDA) was only 680 million (data public, as required by sec) so the board sued that guy to force him to pay when backed down as that valuation was insanely high and the board would never get such a big golden parachute
Now: we don’t need to publish financial data anymore but CEO says that the company is super profitable, valuation is back to 44 billion, trust us 😉
He gave his stock on those companies as collateral for bank loans and he needs those stocks to hold value otherwise the banks will call the loans and will reduce Musk’s ownership of his companies
That could just as well be the reasons those banks want those companies to have an inflated value.
If those companies lose much value there will be a lot of mess and no one involved is going to get richer of it.
These days a CEO is pretty much someone that markets a company towards the shareholders. Elon is a pretty good marketeer.
Was. He was a great marketeer. And then he crashed his brain and is ruining everything he built.
A good marketeer? Are you fecking serious?
Musk is a threat to the integrity of the USA and is a dumpster of a human being but he knows how to navigate the circles of government, politics, and investors and gets those people to believe in him and let him do whatever he’s been doing
Yes, his track record shows he is. He was able to create a brand for himself that made him the richest man alive.
I don’t think I can think of a better metric.
While it’s true that half of the world thinks he’s a shithat the other half thinks the man thinks this man embodies some kind of good.
I fell for it to, back in 2016 I thought the man was going to do great things for humanity
It’s the largest pump and dump scheme in history and it’s being done in the open.
Yeah, they are literally begging maga idiots to buy TSLA to keep the price up while executives are unloading shares. International sales completely gone. Domestic sales declining. Cybertruck flopped. Tariffs are going to cripple their production. Competing EV are making TSLA look like amateurs. Like, what’s the upside?
After convincing them that EVs were trash no less.
Roll coal!!!
Nah. I have an ev and love it, but it’s not a Tesla.
Haha, I’m just playing, poking fun at the fact that the right loves to shit on EV’s.
Yet Tesla stock is up.
Well, over what period of time are you talking about?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/
For the day, TSLA is up 5.27%.
For five days, down 0.51%.
For one month, down 26.37%.
Year-to-date, down 38.41%.
For six months, up 4.39%.
Like, depends on the start and end time that you’re looking at.
For 1 year, up 45.59% (this is fucking crazy!) For 5 years, up 625.30%
This is not normal for any stock, even if the company was doing good. But the company isn’t doing good.
Their market share is small and hasn’t grown in ways promised. The Cybertruck was a disaster, with almost no customers, only legal in some parts of the world (parts without proper regulations) and a bunch of delays and technical issues. Demand has been decreasing, even before Musks latest public Nazi shit. Revenue is down. There appears to have been fraud in the numbers they did report and those weren’t good to start with. The whole promised future of self driving cars has turned out to be total BS and only the very strict anti-sue terms has saved them on this point. Other companies in the same space are doing better on all fronts.
Yet somehow the stock is worth more than the rest of the market they are in? It makes zero sense and you can bet your ass illegal shit has been done to get it to this point.
Musk has been begging people to please hold on to their stock. And if I know one thing, if the big shareholders start saying shit like that, sell immediately! It’s a sign they are going to sell and you need to get out before all the money is gone.
My impression is that the stock market is not really interested in real-world value. It’s interested in projections of future stock price. And those things should be coupled, but they can be very decoupled sometimes.
I don’t understand enough to known why yet though.
People have the memory of a goldfish nowadays.
I was alive during the 2000 and 2008 market crashes, but also the 2020 non-crash.
It could be that Tesla really has cracked autonomous driving by summer, as Elon claims, and then they will recover a lot of market value.
But more realistically, as the saying goes, even a dead cat bounces.
Markets never go down in perfect lines. There are dead cat bounces along the way.
Tesla really has cracked autonomous driving by summer, as Elon claims
He really says that??
He must be sooo desperate LMAO
He’s been saying “fully autonomous” by next year for literally like 10 years, lol. Short memories indeed.
I believed in him since like 2001. I stopped believing in him by 2015.
He’s been saying “fully autonomous” by next year for literally like 10 years, lol. Short memories indeed.
I just never heard that he announced it like 3 months from now! 🤣
Isn’t it the same with the Jehovah’s witnesses announcing the end of the world in 3 years, then in 2, then in 1, and then… silence?
But of course he will never be able to do that:
Silence.
to be fair what they’ve built is amazing, and good enough for 80-90% of the time. but it needs to be 99.9999% of the time and thats not this year. they will release something of course, and rely on remote human intervention, and many people will die. but the media wont mention it and the statistics will be buried, and when it rains or is foggy or too hot etc millions will all be stranded.
What they’ve achieved is irrelevant. They’re never gonna achieve 99.999% with standard cameras + AI for decades. Elon can’t magically manifest the safety of Lidar through hopes and prayers; yet he believes he can, so the only logical conclusion is that he’s a complete fucking moron con artist, only skilled at separating people from their money.
If you don’t understand this yet, print me out some examples of your best code, and email me a list of your top accomplishments from the last week!
Checkout how good their fucking reduction to using only cameras, instead of radar or lidar, line everyone else, is working out
Here is a nice comparison between lidar and Tesla’s solution with only using cameras:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJL3htsDyQ&t=491You can clearly see the downsides and why those sensors are just not sufficient in any way for a self driving car
The PE ratio for most established carmakers is near 7. Tsla is near 120 last I checked. Some bubbles pop.
It is corruption and market manipulation at the highest possible level because americans elected an russian asset into the office. Shortly after a treaaonous judge claimed president can do whatever they want. And aparrently you are only allowed to stop crime when it’s occurring, not treason.
It’s market manipulation of the highest order. It’s not legal but no one is going to do anything about it.
Because he is. Tesla has always been overvalued due to him making bullshit announcements that dumbass investors actually believe.
Adam Conover recently made a video explaining this very thing.
Something that is very easy to forget is that stock value is only very loosely tied to actual company value.
Stock value is based on what people are prepared to pay for the stock, not what the company is worth.
Say that I create a company that makes newspaper hats for tanks in Ukraine, something utterly worthless, I am the only employee and my inventory is just yesterday’s newspapers that I found in the gutter.
My company has zero actual value, but I decide to create 50000 shares of my company, sell one to my friend for €2, and suddenly my company’s market value would look like €100000.
Something that is very easy to forget is that stock value is only very loosely tied to actual company value. Stock value is based on what people are prepared to pay for the stock, not what the company is worth.
Which IMO is a real problem in Tech companies If I look at more traditional industries, A coca-cola stock gives me ~ 0.50 US$ per quarter, so with an expected yield of 3% I am ready to buy a stock at US$ 66. and the current market value is US$ 68, if I do the same exercise for Airbus with 2 EUR of regular divident and 2 EUR of exceptional dividend and that I expect a 3% yield, I would pay 133 EUR for an airbus stock, for a market value of 166. A worse investment than Coca-cola, but still a decent one especially considering the raise of the military companies.
And then there is tech company giving no dividend and using stock buyback (How is that even legal) to keep the company value artificially high.
